REAL ESTATE MARKET & IMPACT ANALYSIS

DOVER PLAINS, NEW YORK

RKG recently completed a market supply/demand analysis for grocery store retail in Dutchess County (Upstate New York) in order to determine the market’s capacity to absorb additional development and its fiscal impact, if any, on the existing markets and municipalities.

RKG completed an analysis of current and projected supply and demand indicators of the existing grocery stores, consumer spending for grocery store merchandise in Dover Plains, New York (population 8,900) and the surrounding market area. At issue was whether this limited growth community could support an additional 36,000 SF of grocery store shopping. While it is undeniable that the new store would have some impact on existing competition, it was important to understand whether the new store could result in store closings, a potential decline in assessments among competing venues and ultimately an overall net lowering of property taxes, despite the new growth. Furthermore, the host community has already sought a second grocery (at 40,000 SF) as part of the Dover Knolls development about 7-miles to the south. As a result, the issue is really one of the market’s capacity to support three grocery stores successfully and without undue impact.

RKG concluded that the market could support some additional grocery store space, but far less than that being proposed. The estimated increase in property taxes were negligible and as a result the project was considered to be in conflict with portions of the Town’s zoning regulations. The Town planning board is considering whether the project should be addressed by the state land-use regulations under the NY State Environmental Quality Review (SEQR) process.